Memo †Investment Recommendation for Centagenetix Essay

After looking over the material regarding Centa constituenttix, I have a recomm determinationation as to whether or non MPM should put in Centagenetix. I realize that we have fagged a gravid barter of time and resources on this project already, and that Harvard Medical School is anticipating that this deal provide go forward. I in care manner realize that backing come in of the deal now could reflect badly upon MPM and upon you, simply my recommendation is that MPM clothe in Centagenetix at this point. The main reason is that if Centagenetix is true(a)ly able to attain a product to increase human longevity, there ar nigh major headlands and concerns about first getting this product to commercialize, as soundly as what conditions this product faculty carry for measurable efficacy and if the market impart be willing to accept them. I will handle other considerations shortly save I think that is itself a say-so deal-breaker. Let us first consider the New England C entenarian paper (NECS). While it is a worthwhile and interesting ask, with good correlations between family members and a sample pool large enough to provide preliminary recallings, it tacit has approximately weaknesses. The two major ones being how geographically centric it is and the coat of it. Scientists who study aging have long argued that environment and lifestyle menstruate into the largest role in longevity, but Centagenetix is setting out to see if that is inaccurate if there is in fact a heritable gene (or genes) for longevity. It would count that in order to provide a strong argument that the study reaches beyond environment, there should be more samples from aras beyond the eight towns swell-nigh Boston that the NECS using up. It could too be a problem that the majority of the centenarians used had no history of smoking or obesity and were generally meek in stature. Granted that using these samples, they found a linkage on chromosome 4, but this does non seem to match the homologous zones for longevity in the previously studied model organisms.There are possible correlations on other chromosomes that track with those model organisms, but the patent that they filed is for the 10 trillion base pair region on chromosome 4. I am to a fault concerned that the first attempt to scale the study to a larger population forceed in a noteworthy decrease of the linkages strength. Scaling it up further getd the statistical strength of the linkage, but the boilersuit strength and valuation of the IP remains in question. We also charter to consider the mishap that this 10M bp region will contain genes that other groups are already studying and that the patent is not strong enough to exsert a challenge. It is possible that these longevity genes will be related to insulin receptors or free radical management two areas that several groups or companies are already studying. How strong will the IP remain when there is contestation for these hyp othetical genes? If that is the case, the compeverys major resource will be its SNP database of centenarians, which will cost at least another $10 one thousand million to get to a functional state, plus more specie to prosper and maintain it. I have not seen any market psychoanalysis as to how a lot companies will pay for access to much(prenominal) a database. While Millennium has a somewhat similar model, they are practically more pro-active in what they offer their clients, and that is what arguably drives their profits. The database will be valuable, but just how valuable is an important question. We need to know what the likelihood is that structure such a SNP database will turn a profit, who specifically would be interested in paying for its use, and how much they would pay. In addition, would Centagenetix receive any royalties or payments for products based off findings from that SNP database? These are important considerations, especially if the possibility exists tha t the SNP database will have to support the caller for any protracted sum up of time. There remains a conflict-of-interest issue with Tom Perls and Harvard. If he locoweed be enticed away from Harvard, the study that the company is based on will potentially no longer be available. Perls will be a key founding member of Centagenetix, and is expected be motivated and incentivized to clobber hard. Without a stake in the company, it remains unclear if that will happen. We also need to consider that if Perls does leave Harvard, will BIDMC still allow Centagenetix the use of the NECS, or should we re-consider the proposal from Whitehead to buy them out? The value of the IP revolves strongly around the NECS and Dr. Perls work.There needs to be a much clearer sense as to if or how these issues will be resolved, or else MPM might own a major stake in a company that will require a much larger investment to restore the IP we have assumed they already have. Finally, I want to drive away to my main point Aside from a SNP database, what is at the end of the Centagenetix railway line? Let us assume that they do find a gene or several genes that directly relate to longevity and are not in conflict with another group or company, that they can find the function of these genes, and eveningtually develop a product built on that get wordy. Presumably, the function of this product would be to increase longevity in humans. How would they run clinical trials for this, and how long would they take? If the measure of success is how long soulfulness lives, might not the trials take far longer than is feasible for us to provide funding? Assume that they get past pre-clinical trials will the FDA even allow such a product to be tested? I think that we need to know more about how the FDA would approach such a product, as it seems like the regulatory hurdles for this will not be what most pharmaceutical companies are accustomed to. They are not trying to treat or effect a disease st ate, but rather to increase longevity. Granted that Ponce de Len spent much of his life searching Florida for the Fountain of Youth, and that a product like this will appeal to the general public, there is likely to be some serious regulatory and clinical trial hurdles to get it there. We also need to consider how the medical community and public will play off to such a product. It seems likely that, given how numerous of the subjects from the NECS lived relatively anicteric lives, the product will have some stipulations about health for supreme efficacy. If the public is required to not smoke, or be obese originally this product will work for them then that will significantly advert adoption. In addition, how would the medical community respond to something with claims of increasing longevity?I think it would be highly skeptical and cynical. There will be difficulty in both convincing doctors to prescribe it, as well as getting payers to compensate for it. This will presumabl y be a product that patients will take for the rest of their lives, meaning there will likely be a struggle for both adoption and compliance. The merely real gauge of such a product will be how long someone lives, and it will be challenging to demonstrate deduction that any increase in longevity is a direct result of Centagenetixs product. Significant market research needs to be through with(p) that considers the varying scenarios for adoption and lifestyle changes, to see if the market size is as big as one would expect it to be. In closing, I pick out that other products may come out of Centagenetix that are related to actual disease states or physiological processes. It is possible that they will develop an awe-inspiring and profitable drug that is related to the longevity of the patients of the NECS and beyond. Heck, they may even discover the cure for cancer. Even so, there are far too many unknowns and uncertainties in this proposal. The strength of the IP is in question. The availability of the NECS and even Dr. Perl is uncertain. What an end product looks like and what sort of market exists for it. How much more money it will take if they need to build a SNP database to remain in business, or if they have to do another NECS-like study of their own. The risks and uncertainties are sizeable, and the question about actual market size is significant. I do not think that MPM should invest in Centagenetix at this point.